WASHINGTON, October 13 (FENA) – Bosnia and Herzegovina’s economic growth will slow from 2.4 percent in 2025 to 2.3 percent in 2026, while inflation will rise from four to five percent, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts in its latest World Economic Outlook report.
At the same time, the IMF warns that the global economy, despite its resilience so far, faces increasingly serious risks from the war in the Middle East, high energy prices and rising public debt.
According to the IMF’s October projections, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth will slow from an estimated 2.4 percent in 2025 to 2.3 percent this year, before picking up slightly to 2.6 percent in 2027.
Meanwhile, average annual inflation in BiH is expected to rise from four percent in 2025 to five percent in 2026, before slowing to 3.3 percent in 2027, according to the IMF.
The report also projects that Bosnia and Herzegovina’s current account deficit will reach 4.9 percent of GDP this year, compared with 3.1 percent in 2025, while a deficit of 4.8 percent of GDP is forecast for next year.
According to the IMF’s projections, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 12.2 percent in both 2026 and 2027.
The forecasts show that several countries in the region will record somewhat higher economic growth than BiH this year. Serbia is projected to grow by 3.3 percent, Montenegro by three percent, Albania and North Macedonia by 3.5 percent each, while Croatia’s economy is expected to expand by 2.2 percent.
Globally, the IMF forecasts economic growth of 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027. This year’s forecast remains unchanged from the April report, while next year’s outlook has improved moderately.
Nevertheless, the IMF warns that favorable aggregate indicators mask increasingly pronounced differences between economies, particularly between countries benefiting from the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) and those heavily exposed to rising energy prices.
According to the Fund’s estimates, global inflation will rise from 4.1 percent in 2025 to 4.7 percent this year, primarily due to higher energy and food prices, before returning to 4.1 percent in 2027.
The IMF notes in its report that the global economy has faced a series of extraordinary disruptions in recent years, including the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East and changes in international trade relations.
Although financial systems and labor markets have demonstrated considerable resilience, governments have increasingly limited capacity to cushion the effects of new crises.
In the report’s foreword, IMF Chief Economist Silvana Tenreyro warned that the global economy could soon reach the limits of its resilience unless countries strengthen productive capacity and rebuild financial buffers to respond to future shocks.
Particular concern surrounds the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, which has caused serious disruptions to international supplies of oil and other energy sources.
The IMF notes that before the conflict began, approximately 20 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz each day, accounting for around one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade.
The consequences of the closure of this key shipping route have so far been partially mitigated by rerouting shipments, increasing production in other countries, drawing on existing stockpiles and the global economy’s lower dependence on oil compared with previous decades.
In addition to energy disruptions, the IMF identifies high public debt as one of the key risks. Government borrowing costs are rising, and many governments have already used a significant share of their fiscal buffers to cushion the effects of previous crises.
The Fund warns that the combination of high debt, rising interest rates and renewed inflationary pressures could further constrain governments’ ability to protect businesses and households.
At the same time, accelerated investment in artificial intelligence is one of the important factors supporting global economic growth. Increased demand for technological equipment, semiconductors and digital infrastructure has boosted investment and international trade.
