The production of primary electricity will grow at an average annual average rate of 2.7% between 2024 and 2027, according to the latest Energy Balance Forecast published by the National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (CNSP).

According to the cited source, hydropower production in 2024 will have an estimated value of 1.469 million toe, down by 8.3% compared to 2023 under unfavorable climatic conditions, and will return to an increase of more than 4% in 2025 under normal precipitation conditions.

Wind power generation is expected to increase this year to 684,000 toe, and for the period 2025-2027, it will have a projected advance of 3.5% as an average annual rate, while photovoltaic power generation will total 228,000 toe in 2024, and for the period 2025-2027, it will have a projected increase of 11.8% average annual rate.

In total, hydro, wind and photovoltaic generation will total 2.38 million toe (minus 1.4%) in 2024, 2.497 million toe (plus 4.9%) in 2025, 2.578 million toe (plus 3.2%) in 2026 and 2.687 million toe (plus 4.2%) in 2027.

Nuclear power production was assumed to be constant for the 2024-2027 interval, with a multi-year value forecast at 968,000 toe.

As for electricity imports, an increase of 11.7% is forecast for 2024, concomitant with a 4.4% increase in exports, moderating after 4 years of double-digit increases, with Romania continuing to be a net energy exporter in 2024.

“In the scenario, net electricity exports are projected to remain positive over the forecast horizon, but with a narrowing trend in the gap, as external demand may decrease,” the forecast note says.

Electricity imports are estimated at 828,000 toe in 2024 (plus 11.7%), 780,000 toe in 2025 (minus 5.8%), 700,000 toe in 2026 (minus 10.3%) and 610,000 toe in 2027 (minus 12.9%).

Electricity production from thermal power plants is forecast to decrease to 1.477 million toe, and for the period 2024-2027 it is estimated to decrease at an average annual rate of 6.9%. The electricity produced in the thermal power plants is used to balance the domestic consumption needs, in the current context of reducing the dependence on natural gas imports.

Domestic electricity consumption (total use less exports) is also expected to decrease in 2024, but at a much lower dynamic (-0.6% compared to -5.8% in 2023), and to have an average annual growth rate of 0.8% between 2025 and 2027. This increase is mainly driven by electricity consumption in industry, services and the residential sector, specifies the CNSP.