Greece’s strong growth rates will continue in 2026 and 2027 according to projections made by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in its semi-annual report on the prospects of the global economy on Tuesday.

The OECD forecasts 2.2% GDP growth in Greece in 2026, up from 2.1% in 2025, as investments financed by the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) reach a peak. The RRF contribution to public spending in 2026 is seen rising to 4% of GDP in 2026, up from 2.1% in 2025, and then to drop off so that investment growth slows from 8.8% in 2026 to 1.5% in 2027.

Consumption is expected to remain strong (2% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027), supported by higher employment rates and real wages, while exports are seen improving due to a recovery in global demand.
Inflation is projected to fall to 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, while the labour market will be tight, with joblessness dropping from 8.7% this year to 8.2% in 2026 and 8.1% in 2027.

The OECD also projects high primary surpluses ranging between 2.3 and 2.9% of GDP in the period 2025-2027 that will further reduce public debt from 145.8% of GDP in 2025 to 139.4% in 2026 and 134.5% in 2027. The report notes that the steady decline of public debt must be a priority as there will continue to be a high need for investments and due to the ageing population. It also calls for continued reforms to keep growth rates high and further reduce public debt as a percentage of GDP.

It recommended measures to create a business-friendly environment, fewer restrictions on freelance professions and a new balance of policies in the labour market to provide training and advisory support to the unemployed, covering the gaps in labour market supply and demand and better covering the personnel needs of businesses.

It also urged public spending to improve access to childcare, to encourage women to join the workforce.