ZAGREB, 17 Aug (Hina) – Average temperatures in Croatia are projected to rise by more than 2°C by 2070, bringing harsher heatwaves, droughts and wildfires, yet climatologists stress that timely action could still curb the most severe effects of climate change.
Warming is evident across all seasons, but is most pronounced in summer, when the difference is clearest. Both daily maximum and minimum temperatures have risen.
Heatwaves are increasingly marked not only by hot days but also by warm nights, when temperatures no longer fall below 20°C, according to a report by Sara Ivasić of the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ).
In the 1990s, continental Croatia experienced almost no warm nights; in the past decade, among the hottest globally on record, there have been up to ten per year. Along the Adriatic coast, the numbers are even higher: in Dubrovnik and Split, 91% of nights in the summer of 2004 were classified as warm. Once rare, unusually hot summer days and nights are now part of everyday climate reality.
From 33°C to 35°C as the new normal
Under a moderate emissions scenario (RCP4.5), summers between 2041 and 2070 will be significantly hotter compared with 1981-2010. On the Adriatic coast and in central and eastern Croatia, maximum summer temperatures are expected to rise by 2.0-2.2°C, while in mountainous regions and inland Istria the increase could reach 2.2-2.4°C.
“A hot summer day we currently experience at 33В°C will in the future be closer to 35°C, no longer an exception but a regular occurrence,” said Ivasić .
Central Croatia could see 7.5-10 more hot days each summer, inland Dalmatia 5-10 more, and the coast 10-17.5 additional days. Warm nights are projected to increase by 22% along the Adriatic and by 20-22% in central Croatia.
“The rise in warm nights reduces the chance of night-time relief and quality rest, heightening heat stress for people as well as for nature,” Ivasić added.
Less rain, more drought
Projections also indicate changes in rainfall patterns. Summer precipitation is expected to decline almost everywhere, with the steepest falls of 15-20% in the coastal region, central Dalmatia and mountainous areas.
Fewer rainy days mean more droughts, especially in highland and inland Dalmatia, with up to 7.5% more dry days annually. Summers will be hit hardest, likely bringing more frequent prolonged dry spells.
Urban heat island effects -В from concrete, asphalt, traffic emissions and air conditioning units releasing heat -В will worsen conditions in cities, which can be up to 10В°C hotter than surrounding rural areas.
Impacts on farming, tourism and fire risk
Climate change will directly affect life and the economy. Higher temperatures may extend the growing season and heat accumulation for crops, but lack of rainfall will threaten yields. Hotter soils will accelerate evaporation and water loss, while the risk of forest fires will rise in both Dalmatia and inland regions.
Tourism could also shift, with peak summer becoming less attractive, while spring and autumn gain appeal.
“These projected changes – hotter summers, more warm nights, less rainfall and more frequent droughts – are not distant scenarios. The process is already underway,” Ivasić warned.
She underlined that while the challenges are serious, decisive action to cut greenhouse gas emissions and invest in adaptation can soften the worst impacts. At the same time, Croatia could harness some advantages, such as extending the tourist season into spring and autumn.
