Extreme weather events will surge by the end of this century and the Alps will be hard hit, Italy’s alternative and sustainable energy company ENEA said Monday.

By the end of the century, Italy and the entire Mediterranean basin will experience a general increase in temperatures and a reduction in average precipitation, according to the ENEA study, which also highlights how these changes in Italy will be accompanied by a marked increase in the frequency of extreme events, with intense thunderstorms and flash floods, especially during the autumn season in the Alps.

“We used very high-resolution regional climate projections (up to 5 km), which—like a magnifying glass—allowed us to accurately determine the expected impacts by 2100, especially in relation to extreme events and local phenomena,” explained study coordinator Maria Vittoria Struglia.

The ENEA team conducted simulations for both the past climate (1980-2014), useful for quantifying ongoing changes, and the future climate (2015-2100), using three reference socioeconomic and climate scenarios.

The scenarios range from those in which environmental sustainability policies are implemented to those in which decarbonization policies are not central to development models.

Based on these projections, the effects of climate change on surface temperature and precipitation in Italy were estimated.

According to the study, summer temperatures are projected to increase in mountainous areas, with peaks of up to +4.5°C and up to +3.5°C in autumn in the highest-impact scenario.

This represents a significant warming that, in these areas, is not reproduced by low-resolution global models.

In terms of precipitation, the climate will tend to become generally drier in all seasons, particularly during summer.

However, in the two most critical scenarios, an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events is expected, especially in northern Italy and, in particular, in the Alpine and sub-Alpine areas.